Republicans Aim for Iowa Senate Seat in Year-End Special Election

Dec 31, 2025, 2:47 AM
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A special election in Iowa on December 31, 2025, will determine the next state senator for parts of Des Moines' suburbs, following the death of Democratic Senator Claire Celsi on October 6, 2025. This election presents Republicans with a critical opportunity to reclaim a supermajority in the state Senate, which they lost earlier this year.
Democrat Renee Hardman is running against Republican Lucas Loftin for the vacant seat. Hardman, who is the CEO of nonprofit Lutheran Services of Iowa and a member of the West Des Moines City Council, would also make history as the first Black woman elected to the Iowa state Senate if she wins. Loftin, on the other hand, has a background in environmental services, having transitioned from a tree trimmer to a software and data project manager.
The stakes are high for both parties. A Republican victory would restore their supermajority status, allowing them to easily confirm appointments made by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds to state agencies and commissions. Currently, Republicans hold 33 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 16, following Celsi's passing. The recent political landscape has seen Democrats gaining ground, as evidenced by a Democrat flipping a Republican seat in an August special election.
In the district where the election is taking place, Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately 3,300 voters, with 37% registered as Democrats compared to 30% as Republicans. However, the dynamics of a holiday week special election could lead to unpredictable voter turnout. Additionally, about one-third of registered voters in the district are affiliated with other parties or are unaffiliated, which could further complicate the election outcome.
Celsi had a strong showing in her 2024 reelection bid, winning 69% of the vote against a Libertarian candidate. However, her performance in the 2022 election was less dominant, as she secured 58% against a Republican challenger who garnered 42% of the vote. This trend mirrors the support Republican President Donald Trump received in the district during the last presidential election.
As the election approaches, both candidates are ramping up their campaigns to sway undecided voters. Hardman's platform focuses on community service and social issues, while Loftin emphasizes his local roots and experience in management. The outcome of this election will not only affect the balance of power in the Iowa Senate but also set the tone for the upcoming legislative session in 2026.
With the election just days away, Iowans are preparing to make a significant decision that could reshape the political landscape of their state for years to come. The results will be closely watched, as they may indicate broader trends in voter sentiment leading into the next election cycle.
As the final Tuesday of the year approaches, the implications of this special election extend beyond the immediate political ramifications, potentially influencing the strategies of both parties as they gear up for future contests.
Schoenbaum reported from Salt Lake City.

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