Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid expressed optimism about strong economic growth driven by consumer spending and investments. However, he cautioned that inflation continues to outpace the Fed's target, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy.

## Kansas City Fed Chief Predicts Strong Growth Amid Persistent Inflation

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid recently provided an optimistic outlook for the US economy, highlighting strong growth driven by robust consumer spending and investments, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

Schmid noted that the economy appears to enter 2026 with significant momentum, citing a 4.4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion in the third quarter of 2025 as evidence of this upward trend.

Despite the positive growth indicators, Schmid pointed out that inflation remains a pressing concern, continuing to exceed the Federal Reserve's target.

He emphasized the need to differentiate between growth that is supply-driven and that which is demand-driven, as the latter often contributes to higher inflation.

"With inflation running closer to 3% than 2%, I see it as appropriate to maintain a somewhat restrictive policy stance," Schmid stated.

The economic landscape has been marked by uneven growth, as high-income households have benefited more significantly from the current economic conditions compared to their low- and middle-income counterparts, who are struggling to keep pace with rising prices.

Schmid articulated that while consumer demand has remained strong, particularly fueled by wealth gains, the strength of demand is disproportionately driven by wealthier households.

In his assessment, Schmid acknowledged that the recent uptick in productivity could be attributed to several factors, including a reduction in labor market churn, which has allowed employees to gain experience and efficiency.

He remarked that businesses are increasingly finding ways to enhance productivity without significantly increasing payrolls.

However, he also cautioned that the link between AI and productivity gains is still not firmly established, indicating that other factors might be at play.

The Kansas City Fed President's comments come against the backdrop of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where most officials expressed a reluctance to resume interest rate cuts due to the persistence of high inflation.

While some members of the FOMC have advocated for further easing, the majority are focused on curbing inflation rather than stimulating employment, given the current economic conditions.

Schmid emphasized that further rate cuts could risk allowing inflation to persist even longer.

He reiterated the importance of focusing on the Fed's inflation objectives to avoid the risk of inflation becoming entrenched at higher levels.

"We must remain focused on our headline inflation objective, otherwise I believe there is a real risk that inflation will get stuck closer to 3% than 2% in the long run," he warned.

As the Federal Reserve navigates this complex economic environment, Schmid remains optimistic about the potential for AI and other innovations to eventually lead to non-inflationary, supply-driven growth cycles.

However, he firmly believes that the current economic indicators do not yet support such a transition.

In conclusion, while the outlook for economic growth in the US appears strong, the ongoing challenge of inflation necessitates a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, balancing the need for growth with the imperative to maintain price stability.

Schmid’s insights underscore the Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while ensuring price stability, a challenge that continues to evolve in the current economic climate.

Kansas City Fed Chief Predicts Strong Growth Amid Persistent Inflation

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US stock markets experienced significant declines as fears of AI disruption influenced investors to withdraw from technology stocks. The Dow Jones fell over 650 points, while gold and bitcoin also saw substantial drops, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the market.

## Stocks Plummet as AI Fears Impact Tech Sector; Gold and Bitcoin Drop

US stocks turned sharply lower on Thursday amid rising fears of AI-driven disruption, prompting investors to rotate out of technology shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 1.3%, or over 650 points, marking the end of a three-day win streak for the blue-chip benchmark.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 2% during the trading session.

Gold futures sank by 3%, and bitcoin declined to around $65,000 as investors adopted a risk-off approach.

This mixed market sentiment arises as investors search for sectors vulnerable to AI disruption, which has already led to a significant decline in software stocks.

Recently, trucking and logistics, along with real estate services, have been hit hard by concerns regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on these industries.

In particular, Cisco Systems saw its stock plummet over 12% due to a bleak profit outlook despite a rise in sales related to the ongoing AI buildout within Big Tech.

Other notable tech companies like Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Apple also recorded steep losses, with Apple experiencing a drop of approximately 5%.

Attention is now shifting towards the upcoming Consumer Price Index report, set to be released on Friday.

A softer reading could boost hopes that inflationary pressures are easing while economic growth remains stable.

Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims data indicated a smaller decline than expected, further complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

The recent strong performance in job creation, which saw the US economy adding twice as many jobs as anticipated in January, raises questions about the necessity for near-term interest-rate cuts, a key driver of recent equity gains.

On the earnings front, fast food giant McDonald's saw its shares nudge higher after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations.

Looking ahead, investors are keenly watching for upcoming earnings from companies like Coinbase, Applied Materials, and Rivian, all set to release their results after the market close on Thursday.

As market participants grapple with the implications of AI on various industries, the outlook remains uncertain, particularly for technology stocks that have been at the forefront of recent volatility.

The shifting investor sentiment reflects a cautious approach as they weigh the potential for disruption against the backdrop of broader economic indicators and earnings reports.

In conclusion, the current stock market turmoil underscores the broader anxieties surrounding technological advancements, particularly in AI.

As investors reassess their positions, the volatility is likely to continue until clearer signals emerge regarding both inflation and growth in the labor market, which are critical for determining Federal Reserve policy moving forward.

Stocks Plummet as AI Fears Impact Tech Sector; Gold and Bitcoin Drop

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The Federal Reserve's recent pause on interest rate cuts is largely supported by a declining unemployment rate, which has recently dropped below 5 percent. This decision reflects the Fed's cautious approach amid mixed economic signals, as policymakers weigh the health of the job market against persistent inflation concerns.

## Lower Unemployment Rate Supports Extended Fed Pause

The Federal Reserve has opted to maintain its current interest rate levels, a decision influenced significantly by a declining unemployment rate that has recently dipped below 5 percent.

This rate pause marks a shift from the previous series of cuts, as policymakers assess the overall health of the economy while balancing ongoing inflation challenges.

As of recent reports, the job market has shown considerable strength, with significant job gains contributing to lower unemployment figures.

The economy added approximately 2.7 million jobs in the last year, averaging around 230,000 new positions each month.

However, recent data indicates a slowdown in job creation, raising concerns among economists about the sustainability of these trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed optimism regarding the economy, noting improvements in economic activity since the last meeting.

He highlighted that the outlook has shown significant strength, marking a departure from previous downturn expectations, and indicated that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates further.

This sentiment echoes the cautious stance taken by other Fed officials, who emphasize the need for a more stable labor market before making any further monetary policy adjustments.

Recent labor market reports have also shown mixed results.

Despite the drop in the unemployment rate, which suggests a strengthening job market, there are signs that job creation is not as robust as it once was.

For instance, the latest data indicates payroll gains have slowed, averaging only about 80,000 per month in recent months.

This slowdown raises questions about whether the labor market is nearing its peak capacity, which could necessitate a reevaluation of the Fed's policies moving forward.

In the backdrop of these developments, inflation remains a key concern for the Federal Reserve.

While inflation levels have fluctuated, they have consistently remained above the Fed’s target of 2 percent for an extended period.

This persistent inflation suggests that rate cuts may not be immediately forthcoming, as the Fed strives to maintain a balance between supporting economic growth and controlling price stability.

Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester underscored the importance of monitoring the labor market, suggesting that the Fed's current position allows for a pause to observe how the economy evolves.

Mester noted that the labor market has stabilized, which supports the notion of keeping monetary policy somewhat restrictive to help guide inflation back towards the target.

The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a broader strategy to assess the evolving economic conditions, particularly as the job market shows signs of both strength and weakness.

The current unemployment rate, while encouraging, must be weighed against potential risks of economic slowdown and persistent inflation.

Thus, the Fed is likely to remain vigilant, prepared to adjust its policies as new data emerges.

In conclusion, the extended pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is primarily supported by a declining unemployment rate, which has created a complex landscape for policymakers.

While the job market shows promise, the Fed's cautious approach reflects an understanding of the need for ongoing monitoring of economic indicators to ensure stability in both employment and inflation rates.

As the economy continues to evolve, the Fed's policy decisions will be critical in navigating the challenges ahead.

Lower Unemployment Rate Supports Extended Fed Pause

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American voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the economies under both President Biden and former President Trump, despite differing economic indicators. Polls indicate that inflation and affordability remain pressing concerns that may impact future elections.

## Comparing Economic Dissatisfaction: Biden vs. Trump

Recent polls reveal a striking similarity in American sentiment towards the economies managed by both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Despite key economic indicators showing growth, such as low unemployment rates and rising wages, public approval remains low for both administrations.

According to a Gallup poll, only 21 percent of Americans rate the current economy as "excellent" or "good," a sentiment reminiscent of the economic struggles during the Great Recession.

This dissatisfaction persists even as statistics indicate improvements, leading many to question the disconnect between economic data and public perception.

The "misery index," which combines unemployment and inflation rates, is currently lower than it was during the 1980s and 1990s.

During Biden's presidency, inflation peaked in early 2022, causing significant concern among voters and contributing to a dip in Biden's approval rating on economic matters, which fell to 36 percent.

While inflation has declined since then, the lingering effects of higher prices continue to shape public perception.

Many Americans desire not just lower inflation but actual decreases in prices, which has not yet been realized.

The dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy has led many to question his administration's effectiveness.

A notable 57 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden's economic management, which some analysts attribute to the rising cost of living and healthcare prices.

In fact, 70 percent of respondents indicated that the cost of living in their area is unaffordable, highlighting a growing sentiment of economic strain across various demographics.

Conversely, Trump's economic approval ratings have also faced scrutiny.

Despite his claims of economic success, including promises of high growth rates and significant investments, many Americans express skepticism about these assertions.

His administration's economic policies, including tariffs, have been criticized for contributing to rising prices, undermining public confidence in his economic stewardship.

During Trump's latest term, only 36 percent of respondents felt he was doing a good job managing the economy, marking the lowest approval rating for him in this area.

Critics point out that even as the economy improved on certain metrics, many voters felt disillusioned, especially as inflation persisted and wages failed to keep pace with rising costs.

### Voter Sentiment and Future Implications

The prevailing economic discontent has created a challenging environment for both parties.

Polls indicate that a majority of Americans (57 percent) expect their financial situation to worsen in the coming year, reflecting a pervasive sense of pessimism.

As both Biden and Trump navigate these economic concerns, the implications for future elections are significant.

Republicans currently face a dilemma as they control the White House and both chambers of Congress but are still unable to convincingly deflect blame for economic dissatisfaction onto the Biden administration.

Many voters now perceive the Democratic Party as slightly better equipped to handle economic issues compared to Republicans, a notable shift from previous electoral cycles.

In summary, economic dissatisfaction appears to be a common thread in American sentiment towards both Biden and Trump.

While both administrations have claimed successes, voters continue to express concern over affordability and persistent inflation.

As the 2024 elections approach, how each party addresses these economic challenges could play a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment and electoral outcomes.

The upcoming political landscape will likely be influenced by these economic perceptions, making it crucial for both parties to address affordability and inflation effectively to regain public trust and support.

Comparing Economic Dissatisfaction: Biden vs. Trump

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As artificial intelligence reshapes the US economy, the Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in monitoring and responding to rapid changes. Traditional economic indicators may no longer suffice, necessitating new data collection methods and tools to effectively manage inflation and employment impacts linked to AI adoption.

## Fed's Challenge: Adapting Tools for an AI-Driven Economy

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into various sectors is set to redefine the US economy, presenting new challenges for the Federal Reserve in monitoring economic health.

As AI agents increasingly engage in transactions, particularly through stablecoins, traditional metrics for assessing economic downturns will likely prove inadequate, leaving policymakers at risk of being outpaced by rapid changes in the economic landscape.

In a world where AI tools are widely adopted, the Federal Reserve must reconsider its approach to monitoring inflation, labor markets, and overall economic activity.

This necessitates an updated strategy for data analysis and collection to preemptively tackle economic challenges arising from AI integration.

To effectively track job growth and output changes, the Fed will need to focus on collecting data related to the costs of computing power and energy consumption in AI applications.

Such metrics will provide insights into where job expansions or contractions are occurring within the economy.

As firms increasingly rely on AI for tasks ranging from data analysis to customer interactions, a decline in human labor usage may signal an impending economic downturn long before traditional unemployment figures reflect it.

Moreover, the rise of the shadow banking sector, driven by stablecoins and AI transactions, presents another challenge.

The Fed must gain visibility into this sector to understand price level movements and respond effectively to any inflationary pressures arising from AI-enhanced economic activities.

Without monitoring these developments closely, the Fed risks being blindsided by inflation signals that manifest in opaque financial markets.

### Adapting Policy Tools for AI Dynamics

Historically, the Federal Reserve has relied on short-term interest rates as its primary tool for influencing the money supply and managing inflation.

However, the unique dynamics of an AI-driven economy could render these traditional mechanisms less effective.

The interplay between AI usage and monetary policy remains largely untested, necessitating a reevaluation of how interest rates interact with AI-driven economic activities.

For instance, AI’s impact on labor markets and inflation may be more closely tied to energy costs and computational efficiencies than to interest rates.

Understanding these relationships will be crucial for developing new Fed tools that can effectively manage the economy in a landscape increasingly dominated by AI technologies.

### The Broader Implications of AI on Employment

The adoption of AI technologies is already influencing employment trends across various sectors.

Reports indicate a significant correlation between AI exposure and rising unemployment rates in certain occupations, particularly within tech sectors where AI tools are most prevalent.

As firms optimize productivity through AI, jobs traditionally considered secure are now at risk, raising concerns about the long-term employment landscape.

This rapid integration of AI into the workforce presents a dual challenge for the Fed: not only must it monitor economic indicators more effectively, but it also must consider the broader implications of job displacement and the need for new workforce development strategies.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to navigate the complexities of an AI-integrated economy, the imperative to adapt its monitoring tools and policy responses has never been clearer.

By focusing on new data metrics and understanding the unique economic dynamics introduced by AI, the Fed can position itself to respond proactively to the challenges ahead.

Failure to do so may result in delayed responses to economic downturns and inflationary pressures, ultimately risking economic stability in an era defined by technological advancement.

The evolution of the economy in the age of AI is not just a challenge for the Fed; it represents a pivotal moment for how economic policy is formulated and executed in the future.

Fed's Challenge: Adapting Tools for an AI-Driven Economy

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President Trump expresses high hopes for the US economy under his new Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, predicting unprecedented growth. However, experts caution that achieving such ambitious targets may be unrealistic amid ongoing economic challenges.

## Trump's Bold Economic Growth Predictions with New Fed Chair

President Donald Trump has set ambitious expectations for the US economy following his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

In a recent interview, Trump claimed that Warsh could achieve an extraordinary 15% economic growth rate, a figure that has not been reached outside of wartime or during significant recoveries from recessions.

While this prediction aligns with Trump's long-standing belief in aggressive monetary policy, experts warn that realizing such growth would require almost miraculous conditions.

Historically, the US economy has averaged a growth rate of around 2% to 3% per year, with double-digit increases occurring mainly in exceptional circumstances.

Trump's comments reflect a broader strategy of advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity.

He has criticized the current Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting rates sufficiently, arguing that the Fed should aim for rates close to 1%, which typically indicates a recession rather than a healthy economy.

This perspective has been met with skepticism from economists, who believe that while lower rates can spur growth, they must also consider inflationary pressures.

The inflation rate is another significant factor that complicates Trump's expectations.

Recent forecasts suggest that inflation may be rising again, with the Consumer Price Index projected to increase by 3.1% in September, marking the highest inflation rate in over a year.

This resurgence in inflation poses challenges for the Fed, as it must balance stimulating growth with controlling price increases.

Moreover, while Trump envisions a booming economy, recent surveys indicate that forecasters expect only modest adjustments to interest rates in the coming years.

Most do not anticipate the aggressive cuts Trump desires, predicting a more gradual approach that leaves rates around 3% through 2027.

Despite these hurdles, some administration officials remain optimistic.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently forecasted that the US economy could exceed 5% growth in early 2026, driven by lower interest rates and substantial tax refunds for consumers.

However, this optimism is tempered by warnings from analysts about potential economic headwinds, including trade tensions and ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump's policies.

The expected changes under Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve will also depend on the broader economic context.

The anticipated rise in capital spending, particularly in artificial intelligence, might help boost GDP growth in the long term.

However, achieving sustained high growth is still viewed as a significant challenge, with many economists forecasting more realistic growth rates between 2% and 2.5% for the next few years.

In summary, while Trump’s expectations for economic growth under Kevin Warsh are ambitious, the reality is likely to be much more complex.

Achieving such a high growth rate will require navigating numerous economic challenges, including inflation and the effects of past tariffs.

The upcoming months will be critical in determining whether Trump's vision for the economy can translate into reality.

Trump's Bold Economic Growth Predictions with New Fed Chair

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Two new voting members of the Federal Reserve, Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan, emphasized the need to maintain steady interest rates due to ongoing inflation concerns. Both officials expressed a cautious outlook, suggesting that current economic indicators do not necessitate further rate cuts at this time.

## New Fed Members Advocate for Steady Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Two new voting members of the Federal Reserve have voiced their preference for holding interest rates steady, citing persistent inflation as a primary concern.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan articulated their positions during recent speeches, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy.

At the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit, Hammack stated, "I believe monetary policy is in a good place to stay on hold as we assess the incoming data and weigh if, and how, policy may need to adjust further." She indicated that she expects rates to remain unchanged for an extended period as the Fed monitors economic indicators.

Hammack highlighted that inflation remains elevated, having hovered around 3% for the past two years.

She emphasized the necessity of seeing clear evidence of decreasing prices before considering any adjustments to interest rates.

Rather than attempting to "fine-tune" rates, she expressed a preference for a patient approach, noting that the Fed's current policy rate is near neutral and not significantly constraining economic activity.

Logan echoed Hammack's concerns, expressing anxiety about inflation's persistence.

In her remarks, she indicated that the three rate cuts implemented last year have potentially increased the risk of sustained inflation.

"Right now, I am more worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high," she stated during her speech in Austin, Texas.

Logan underscored the importance of upcoming data to determine if inflation is trending toward the Fed's target and whether the labor market remains stable.

She suggested that if inflation declines but the job market cools, further rate cuts could be warranted.

The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates comes after a series of rate cuts aimed at protecting the job market from potential downturns.

The current federal funds rate is set between 3.5% and 3.75%, reflecting a pause in the easing cycle that began in September 2025.

This strategic hold allows the Fed to evaluate economic activity and inflation trends more comprehensively.

Recent data show that while inflation has moderated slightly, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annualized rate of 2.7% as of December, indicating some improvement but still reflecting elevated inflationary pressures.

The Fed's cautious stance is partly influenced by uncertainties surrounding economic growth and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, which have added complexity to the economic landscape.

The Fed's leadership has been under scrutiny, with Chair Jerome Powell facing external pressures regarding interest rates.

Despite this, Powell has maintained that the Fed's current policies are appropriate given the existing economic conditions.

During a recent press conference, he remarked, "The economy is not performing as though restrictive policy were holding it back inappropriately," reinforcing the idea that a measured approach is necessary as the Fed navigates its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices.

As the Fed prepares for its next meeting, scheduled for March 17-18, policymakers will continue to scrutinize incoming economic data to inform their decisions.

Analysts suggest that the Fed will likely keep rates steady at least until mid-2026, as they seek to achieve a balance between inflation control and economic growth.

In summary, the positions taken by Hammack and Logan reflect a broader consensus among some Fed officials to prioritize stability in interest rates amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Their cautious approach underscores the complexities facing the central bank as it aims to navigate a challenging economic environment while fulfilling its mandate.

New Fed Members Advocate for Steady Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

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President Donald Trump has stated that his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, could achieve a remarkable 15% economic growth rate. This ambitious target raises concerns about inflation and faces potential political hurdles in the Senate.

## Trump Claims Warsh Can Drive Economy to Unprecedented 15% Growth

President Donald Trump has boldly asserted that if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, the US economy could experience a staggering growth rate of 15%.

This assertion, made during an interview with Fox Business, underscores the immense pressure that Warsh will face if appointed to the role.

Trump referred to Warsh as the "runner-up" in his previous search for Fed leadership and labeled his choice of Jerome Powell as a "big mistake." He expressed confidence in Warsh's capabilities, stating, "If he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%, I think more than that".

Such a growth rate is extraordinarily ambitious, particularly given that the US economy is currently projected to expand by only 2.4% this year, with historical averages hovering around 2.8% over the past five decades.

Notably, the US has only surpassed the 15% growth mark a few times since the 1950s, mainly during post-recession recoveries or wartime conditions, like the post-pandemic rebound in Q3 2020.

Trump's comments reflect his desire for a Fed chair who will prioritize growth by lowering interest rates.

During the interview, he remarked that he would not have nominated Warsh if he had supported increasing rates, indicating a clear preference for aggressive monetary policy ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, which historically pose challenges for incumbent presidents.

However, Warsh's confirmation process may encounter significant obstacles.

Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican from North Carolina, has indicated that he will block any Fed nominations while the Trump administration is under investigation by the Justice Department regarding Powell and a Fed building renovation project.

This potential standoff adds a layer of complexity to Warsh's path to confirmation.

In response to questions regarding the DOJ probe and its impact on Warsh's nomination, Trump seemed unfazed, stating, "If it happens, it happens".

This attitude highlights Trump's willingness to navigate the political landscape, even if it complicates Warsh's ascension to the Fed chair position.

The prospect of aiming for a 15% growth rate raises significant concerns about inflation.

Economic experts warn that such aggressive growth targets could lead to soaring prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain price stability.

Currently, the Fed has only penciled in one interest-rate cut for 2026, while investors are hopeful for two reductions this year, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing inflationary pressures.

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