A recent survey conducted by the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has provided valuable insights into Iranian public opinion following the June 2025 Twelve-Day War.At a forum held on March 5, Director Nancy Gallagher presented the findings, which indicate significant shifts in Iranian attitudes toward security, foreign policy, and economic conditions due to the conflict.
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cissm.umd.eduThe survey, titled "Iranian Public Opinion Soon After the Twelve-Day War," is based on telephone interviews conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents across Iran in September and October 2025.It boasts a margin of error of ±3.1 percent and aims to enhance international policy discussions by providing empirical evidence on how Iranians perceive major security issues and policy tools used by foreign governments.
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cissm.umd.eduGallagher remarked on the dangers of generalizations made by outside observers regarding Iranian public sentiment.She emphasized the importance of allowing Iranians to express their views directly through systematic research."Policymakers, activists, and journalists outside Iran often make generalizations about what the Iranian public wants," she stated."In my experience, those claims often say more about the preferences of the person making them than about measurable public opinion in Iran".
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cissm.umd.eduThe survey results suggest that the Twelve-Day War has led to a significant "rally-round-the-flag" effect among Iranians.A notable majority expressed that Iran effectively defended itself during the conflict and praised various aspects of their government's and military's performance during the hostilities.However, this sense of national unity coexists with continued economic dissatisfaction.About 70% of respondents described the overall economic situation as poor, with more attributing economic difficulties to domestic mismanagement and corruption rather than to international sanctions, a trend consistent with sentiments from the previous year.
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cissm.umd.eduThere has also been a notable shift in security attitudes post-war.Support for Iran's missile program has reached record levels, and for the first time, a slim majority of respondents expressed a desire for Iran to develop a nuclear deterrent instead of merely a peaceful nuclear program.Despite these changes, the survey revealed complex views on future diplomacy.While many respondents expressed resistance to external pressures, such as sanctions or military strikes, some indicated a willingness to negotiate with the United States if credible assurances were provided.
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cissm.umd.eduPolitical analyst Negar Mortazavi, who participated in the forum, compared these findings to her conversations with Iranians both inside and outside the country since the escalation of tensions with the US Her insights reflect the nuances of public sentiment shaped by ongoing conflicts and historical experiences, particularly the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, which has had lasting impacts on national defense preferences among Iranians who experienced it during their formative years.
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theforum.erf.org.egThe forum also addressed the challenges of conducting surveys in authoritarian environments, especially regarding sensitive political topics.Gallagher highlighted the methods employed by CISSM researchers to minimize self-censorship and enhance the reliability of responses.Moreover, audience questions delved into how public attitudes might have evolved in light of recent protests and extensive military actions that have resulted in significant casualties, including the deaths of Iran's Supreme Leader and other high-profile figures.
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cissm.umd.eduThe ongoing Iran Public Opinion project is part of CISSM's broader research efforts to understand how domestic political factors, such as public opinion and elite preferences, influence national policies and international outcomes.The findings underscore the importance of understanding Iranian perspectives as policymakers and analysts navigate the complexities of US-Iran relations in this tumultuous period.
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cissm.umd.eduOverall, the survey highlights the shifting landscape of Iranian public opinion in the wake of the Twelve-Day War, revealing both a rallying behind national defense initiatives and a persistent call for economic accountability.As the US continues military actions against Iran, understanding these attitudes will be crucial for future diplomatic efforts and regional stability.
